No Good Outcome

The dreaded 2024 U.S. Presidential Election is nearly upon us, and many Americans report heightened anxiety. U.S. voters are right to be anxious, but perhaps not for the reasons they think.

There is a widespread narrative that casts this election as a battle between authoritarianism on the one hand, and democracy on the other. That is a superficial, black-and-white fairy tale that bears little resemblance to the truth. It would have you believe that, if the Democrats can manage to win, America will be saved and reason will prevail.

Harris vs. Trump. Source: cnn.com.
Harris vs. Trump. Source: cnn.com.

But consider: the country is intractably divided, almost 50-50. The election will not change that. Voters are divided largely on the basis of educational attainment, and the U.S. educational system has performed poorly in recent decades (hence the divide). The election will not change that, either.

Consider, too, that the world is becoming an increasingly dangerous place. Vicious, genocidal campaigns are occurring in the Mideast and Africa, and they are simply background noise in the West. Climate change is accelerating more rapidly than anticipated, and the powers that be ignore that, too. Will the 2024 election change either of those realities? Will it result in a more equitable and peaceful human society, even in the United States?

Of course not.

In this context, why should one even bother to vote?

The answer to that question summons the old hope vs. despair argument—i.e., you can either give up, or you can try to make things better in some small way.

One could argue that, over the course of millennia, humanity has made gradual advances and improvements.

One could also argue the opposite.

If you believe in incremental progress, then you should vote for Kamala Harris and the Democrats. Such a vote is less likely to result in immediate chaos or increase human rights violations and/or climate disasters. (Although all of these certainly remain possible.)

Just realize that your vote, and the election, will improve nothing by themselves. Change for the better will remain up to those willing to undertake it, after the votes have been cast.

An Image of Terminal Decline

As the United States prepares to celebrate Independence Day, the picture it presents to the world at large is not a good one. For that matter, the rest of the world isn’t looking so hot, either. The turn to the right, here and globally, seems inexorable.

The recent presidential “debate” is a stark example of how far this country has fallen. We’re offered two elderly white male candidates, one a convicted felon and congenital liar, the other an 81-year-old who could not complete his thoughts or sentences.

The catastrophic debate. Photo: Kenny Holston/The New York Times.
The catastrophic debate. Photo: Kenny Holston/The New York Times.

“I am worried about the image projected to the outside world,” Sergey Radchenko, a historian at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, was quoted as saying in the New York Times. “It is not an image of leadership. It is an image of terminal decline.”

France, Germany and the Netherlands, along with Italy, have also swung to the right, and thus have begun the process of dismantling societal safeguards that right-wing governments generally undertake. (The UK, thankfully, appears to be proceeding in the opposite direction.)

It’s well-known that the U.S. has been declining in terms of its citizens’ well-being relative to other nations. U.S. News & World Report, famous for its controversial college rankings, puts the United States at #23 in the world overall. The OECD* Better Life Index has us at #10 overall, but #33 (of 35) for social inequality, #28 (of 41) for voter turnout and #29 of 41 for life expectancy. Factor in our increasingly lax laws on the country’s 300 million+ guns and the Supreme Court’s determination that President Trump has absolute immunity for “official acts,” and our national situation is even worse than it looks.

As of this writing, President Biden is reportedly considering whether he should continue trying to persuade his party and the general public that he is an effective candidate, one who could handle the presidency for the next four years. The Times reports that if he concludes he cannot recover from his debate debacle, he could drop out of the race as soon as next week. That would raise new risks as a group of alternative candidates would grapple for the nomination at the Democratic National Convention. Nonetheless, it is probably the best course of action.

Even so, Trump seems likely to win in November. If he does, America’s outlook will be bleaker still.

* Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.